{"id":1441,"date":"2024-08-02T07:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-02T07:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aidanmccullen.com\/?p=1441"},"modified":"2024-08-02T07:45:00","modified_gmt":"2024-08-02T07:45:00","slug":"from-bias-tyres-to-biased-minds-the-road-to-firestones-failure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aidanmccullen.com\/?p=1441","title":{"rendered":"From Bias Tyres to Biased Minds: The Road to Firestone\u2019s Failure"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cOnce a detective decides that he or she has found the killer, the confirmation bias sees to it that the prime suspect becomes the only suspect. And once that happens. an innocent defendant is on the ropes\u2026 Doubt is not the enemy of justice; overconfidence is\u2026True scientists speak in the careful language of probability.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aCarol Tavris and Elliot\u00a0Aronson<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

In 1980, Thomas Lee Goldstein, a college student and ex-Marine, was wrongfully convicted of a murder he did not commit. Goldstein spent 24 years in prison. There was no physical evidence against him: no gun, fingerprints, blood, or motive. His conviction relied solely on the testimony of jailhouse informant Edward Fink and an unreliable eyewitness.<\/p>\n

Fink, a heroin addict with a criminal history, was notorious for testifying in multiple cases where defendants supposedly confessed to him. Described as<\/a> \u201ca con man who tends to handle the facts as if they were elastic,\u201d Fink lied under oath about receiving a reduced sentence for his testimony. The only other support came from Loran Campbell, who identified Goldstein after police falsely claimed he failed a lie-detector test. Four other eyewitnesses described the killer as \u201cblack or Mexican,\u201d while Goldstein is white. Furthermore, Campbell later recanted, admitting he was overly eager to assist the\u00a0police.<\/p>\n

Despite 5 judges agreeing that prosecutors had denied Goldstein a fair trial, Goldstein remained imprisoned until 2004, when a California Superior Court judge dismissed the case, citing its reliance on perjured testimony. Nevertheless, the Los Angeles District Attorney\u2019s office promptly filed new charges and set bail at $1 million. Deputy District Attorney Patrick Connolly maintained, \u201cI am very confident we have the right guy.\u201d Two months later, they conceded they had no case and released Goldstein.<\/p>\n

Social psychologist Richard Ofshe compared convicting the wrong person to a physician amputating the wrong arm (it happens<\/a>). If faced with evidence of such a grave error, one\u2019s first impulse is to deny it to protect their job, reputation, and colleagues. In the case of amputating the wrong limb, some physicians<\/a> have placed the responsibility on the\u00a0patient!<\/p>\n

Cognitive dissonance compels us to rationalise our actions and decisions, even in the face of clear contradictory evidence. The more time and effort we invest in an initial decision, the greater the dissonance we experience.<\/p>\n

Once we have made a decision, we resist information that casts doubt on that decision. This psychological phenomenon also manifests in other fields, such as business, where leaders often continue poor investments due to commitment bias, also known as the escalation of commitment. They stick with decisions long past their usefulness to appear consistent and avoid the uncomfortable realisation of being\u00a0wrong.<\/p>\n

Once we have placed our bets, we don\u2019t want to entertain any information that casts doubt on that decision.<\/strong><\/p>\n

There\u2019s an old adage, \u201cThere is no such thing as a good investment in a bad business.\u201d <\/em><\/strong>Although many leaders recognise this truth, it is only in the heat of the moment that they succumb to the hypnotic influence of confirmation bias, commitment bias and cognitive dissonance. This was the case when the U.S. tyre industry was flipped on its head with the threat of a new technology, the radial tyre\u200a\u2014\u200aa change incumbents denied for\u00a0decades.<\/p>\n

Down the Wrong Road\u200a\u2014\u200aThe Bias of The Bias\u00a0(Tyre)<\/h3>\n

\u201cNo matter how far you have gone on a wrong road, turn back.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aTurkish\u00a0proverb<\/em><\/p>\n

In the 1960s, Firestone enjoyed 25% of the domestic tyre market in the US. The top five domestic tyre firms\u200a\u2014\u200aGoodyear, Firestone, B. F. Goodrich, Uniroyal, and General Tire\u200a\u2014\u200atogether accounted for over 80% of industry capacity and shipments and captured nearly all the growth in volume over this period. Between 1960 and 1972, these five companies responded to increased demand by building eighteen new domestic tyre plants. By 1988, Firestone had been acquired by Japanese competitor Bridgestone, and only Goodyear, one of the five biggest U.S. tyre firms, remained independent. What happened?<\/p>\n

Just as Nokia and RIM (Blackberry) knew about changing customer demands, the rise of the iPhone, and the advent of the Internet, they chose to focus on their existing products, capabilities, and business and mental models. In the case of Nokia, like the tyre factories, to exploit their current advantage and drive down costs, they invested in dumbphone factories in China. They not only knew about the rise of the smartphone, they mocked it and just hoped it would diffuse with a trickle, not a tsunami. Despite trying to stem the flood, like the Dutch boy with his finger in the dam, they eventually met their\u00a0demise.<\/p>\n

For Firestone et al, the new technology was the radial tyre. Radial tyres lasted twice as long as the US-dominant bias tyre technology. Even more damning for the bias tyre, radial tyres increased fuel efficiency, handling, and\u00a0safety.<\/p>\n

French tyre maker Michelin pioneered the radial tyre and grew its market share throughout Western Europe. Buoyed by this success, Michelin turned began inroads into the US market. Michelin, which contracted with Sears to manufacture radial tyres under the Allstate label, announced its intention to build a $100 million radial tyre factory in North America. Domestic rival B. F. Goodrich introduced domestically produced radials as an opportunity to gain market share from larger rivals Firestone and Goodyear. Radials were en\u00a0route.<\/p>\n

As is the case with cognitive dissonance, the US incumbents sneered at and mocked the radial tyre, dismissing it at first, just as Nokia<\/a> and RIM did<\/a> with the\u00a0iPhone.<\/p>\n

To satisfice customer demand and dampen the adoption of radial tyres, Firestone and Goodyear responded by introducing a slightly modified version of the traditional tyre. Goodyear introduced the \u201cbelted-bias\u201d tyre in 1967 and Firestone followed the same road a few months later. This was a classic case of cramming a new technology into existing capabilities (i.e., trying to adapt old methods and infrastructure to accommodate new advancements without fully embracing the new technology).<\/p>\n

While the tyre companies were aware of General Motors and Ford\u2019s interest in radial tyres, they had hoped for a gradual diffusion. When both GM and Ford announced their intention to place radial tyres on all models over the coming years, the incumbent tyre manufacturers were left with no choice but to\u00a0comply.<\/p>\n

As case after case of disruption exposes, the more systemic a change needs to be, the more time that is needed for a company to adapt. Many companies, like Firestone, will live with the cognitive dissonance of business as usual in the face of a need to transform.<\/p>\n

Firestone\u2019s response to the radial tyre was shaped by cognitive dissonance and its entrenched bias towards bias tyre capabilities. First, the company introduced the belted-bias tyre, leveraging existing factories and skill sets. This required only minor modifications to production equipment and modest capital spending in 1968 and 1969. Second, to meet automakers\u2019 demands and compete with Michelin, Firestone decided to manufacture radials using modified bias tyre equipment. This allowed for rapid production increases but likely contributed to quality problems. The reliance on familiar methods and infrastructure reflects the company\u2019s reluctance to fully embrace new technology, illustrating cognitive dissonance in its strategic decisions.<\/p>\n

Take The Road Less Travelled<\/h3>\n

The downfall of Firestone and the wrongful conviction of Thomas Lee Goldstein both serve as stark reminders of the perils of cognitive dissonance and commitment bias. All of us, whether in business, law, or life, must remain vigilant against the seductive comfort of entrenched beliefs and practices. The refusal to adapt and acknowledge mistakes can lead to catastrophic failures, be it the collapse of a business empire or the destruction of an innocent life. The road to failure is paved with overconfidence and resistance to change; only by recognising and combating these biases can we steer towards a future of innovation, justice, and success. The road less travelled is often the road to breakthrough.<\/p>\n

Thanks for\u00a0Reading<\/strong><\/p>\n

For more on Firestone, we will host Joseph Bower in a series in late 2024, or early 2025. We also intend to host Richard\u00a0Tedlow.<\/p>\n

For more on cognitive dissonance, check out our latest episode with Carol Tavris, co-author of \u201cMistakes Were Made But Not By\u00a0Me\u201d.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/medium.com\/media\/671a40844ebddc2ff7940ca51593210d\/href<\/a><\/p>\n

From Bias Tyres to Biased Minds: The Road to Firestone\u2019s Failure<\/a> was originally published in The Thursday Thought<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>\n

The post From Bias Tyres to Biased Minds: The Road to Firestone\u2019s Failure<\/a> appeared first on The Innovation Show<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cOnce a detective decides that he or she has found the killer, the confirmation bias sees to it that the prime suspect becomes the only suspect. And once that happens. an innocent defendant is on the ropes\u2026 Doubt is not the enemy of justice; overconfidence is\u2026True scientists speak in the careful language of probability.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aCarol Tavris […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1442,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nFrom Bias Tyres to Biased Minds: The Road to Firestone\u2019s Failure - Aidan McCullen \u2013 Keynote Speaker Ireland | Innovation & Leadership Expert<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aidanmccullen.com\/?p=1441\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"From Bias Tyres to Biased Minds: The Road to Firestone\u2019s Failure - Aidan McCullen \u2013 Keynote Speaker Ireland | Innovation & Leadership Expert\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cOnce a detective decides that he or she has found the killer, the confirmation bias sees to it that the prime suspect becomes the only suspect. 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