{"id":1535,"date":"2025-10-16T23:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T23:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aidanmccullen.com\/?p=1535"},"modified":"2025-10-16T23:15:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T23:15:00","slug":"the-collapse-of-the-curve-the-new-physics-of-diffusion-from-field-to-field","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aidanmccullen.com\/?p=1535","title":{"rendered":"The Collapse of the Curve: The New Physics of Diffusion from Field to Field"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cMore effective communication occurs when two or more individuals are homophilous. When they share common meanings and a mutual subcultural language, and are alike in personal and social characteristics, the communication of new ideas is likely to have greater effects in terms of knowledge gain, attitude formation and change, and overt behavior change.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aEverett Rogers, The Diffusion of Innovations<\/em><\/p>\n

Glacial Gutenburg<\/h3>\n

Gutenberg\u2019s movable type changed history, but its spread was glacial. The invention emerged in the 1440s, yet presses took decades to reach England. The delay was not about distance; information, trade, even the plague travelled faster. The real constraint was complexity. The press was not a single machine but a fusion of metalwork, ink chemistry, woodcarving, and careful assembly. To copy it, you needed Gutenberg\u2019s apprentices. There were people who knew the feel of the metal, the smell of the ink, and, crucially, spoke\u00a0German<\/p>\n

The printing press took half a century to travel from Gutenberg\u2019s workshop in Mainz to the rest of Europe. The press moved from city to city through networks of German artisans. The technology was semi-proprietary, so it was rarely shared with strangers, so it travelled \u201cGerman to German\u201d. Through this slow crawl of adoption, Europe\u2019s first networked revolution took\u00a0shape.<\/p>\n

The press not only multiplied the amount of printed matter in the world; it multiplied the speed at which ideas could move. Yet its own spread was painfully slow.<\/p>\n

As Samuel Arbesman<\/a>, our guest next week on The Innovation Show<\/a>, shares in The Half-Life of Facts, \u201ceach major technological leap shortens the time between discovery and rediscovery, between what we know and what we have to relearn.\u201d The printing press was one such leap and marked a major acceleration in the diffusion of innovations.<\/p>\n

Five centuries later, the same question of how ideas take root appeared again, not in workshops, but in the cornfields of\u00a0Iowa.<\/p>\n

The Iowa\u00a0Curve<\/h3>\n

\u201cIt should not be assumed, as it sometimes has been in the past, that all innovations are equivalent units of analysis. This assumption is a gross oversimplification. While consumer innovations such as cellular telephones and VCRs required only a few years to reach widespread adoption in the United States, other new ideas, such as using the metric system or seat belts in cars, require decades to reach complete use.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aEverett\u00a0Rogers<\/em><\/p>\n

In the 1940s, Bryce Ryan and Neal Gross, began studying farms across Iowa to see why some people had taken a chance on a new hybrid seed while others hadn\u2019t. Their conversations were pretty ordinary, farmers talked about weather, soil, and luck. Eventually a pattern emerged. Rather than spread through pamphlets or salesmen; new ideas moved through gossip, fences, and friendly\u00a0rivalry.<\/p>\n

From that simple observation they mapped the farmer\u2019s journey: awareness, interest, evaluation, trial, and adoption.<\/p>\n

All but two of the 259 farmers studied had adopted hybrid corn within thirteen years, between 1928 and 1941. When plotted year by year, Ryan and Gross discovered the now-familiar S-shaped curve of adoption\u200a\u2014\u200aslow at first, then accelerating, before flattening out as the last holdouts came on\u00a0board.<\/p>\n

From The Diffusion Of Innovations by Everett\u00a0Rogers<\/p>\n

In the 1930s, a young Everett Rogers had watched his father and their neighbours delay for several years in adopting new ideas that could have been profitable for them. Puzzled by their delays, he was curious to uncover their reasons. Years later, Rogers took insights from the Iowa study coupled with his own observations and created the broader Diffusion of Innovations theory. He formalised the process into the now-canonical five stages\u200a\u2014\u200aknowledge, persuasion, decision, implementation, and confirmation\u200a\u2014\u200aand defined five adopter types: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. His bell curve showed how ideas, like seeds, take root\u200a\u2014\u200aslow at first, then quickening, then levelling as the soil saturates.<\/p>\n

Decades later, marketers, economists, and technologists would adopt Rogers\u2019 curve to describe everything from consumer behaviour to cultural trends. But his curve belonged to an era when information, and influence, travelled at human speed\u200a\u2014\u200aalong social ties, newspapers (thanks to Gutenberg), and radio\u00a0waves.<\/p>\n

That world is\u00a0gone.<\/p>\n

Today, diffusion happens at digital speed. The long arc of adoption that once spanned generations has collapsed into moments. What once took decades to trickle through fields and factories now flashes across networks in real\u00a0time.<\/p>\n

The Collapse of the\u00a0Curve<\/h3>\n

Paul Nunes\u2019 Shark\u00a0Fin<\/p>\n

The distinctions Rogers described\u200a\u2014\u200ainnovators, early adopters, majorities, laggards\u200a\u2014\u200ahave blurred into near-simultaneity. As Gutenberg\u2019s invention once connected information across cities, today\u2019s connectivity compresses time\u00a0itself.<\/p>\n

As Paul Nunes and Larry Downes argue in Big Bang Disruption, the smooth arc of Rogers\u2019 bell curve has collapsed. When everyone has access to the same information at the same time, the lag between discovery and adoption disappears. Gutenberg\u2019s press levelled knowledge across Europe; the internet has done the same globally. With near-perfect information, customers no longer wait to see what works\u200a\u2014\u200athey all move at\u00a0once.<\/p>\n

Nunes and Downes call it catastrophic success: when adoption happens so quickly that organisations can\u2019t adjust. A single viral post, a product launch, or an algorithmic nudge can create a spike of instant ascent followed almost immediately by saturation and\u00a0decline.<\/p>\n

The bell curve has become the shark fin\u200a\u2014\u200aa steep rise followed by a sudden drop. Or, in the age of instantaneous diffusion, an I-curve\u200a\u2014\u200anear-vertical and continuous.<\/p>\n

Diffusion used to move through conversation and time. Now it moves through data\u200a\u2014\u200aall at once. The learning that once stretched between stages has been crushed by speed. You can see that shift in John Deere\u2019s story, where the farm has moved from the field to the dashboard. With a hint of irony, precision farming and connected tractors diffused far slower than the information they would soon help to spread instantly.<\/p>\n

John Deere and the\u00a0I-Curve<\/h3>\n

For more than a century, John Deere made tractors. Farmers kept them for decades\u200a\u2014\u200arepaired, repainted, re-worked if they could. The machines carried a kind of institutional memory.<\/p>\n

Not long ago, a new phrase started to appear\u200a\u2014\u200ain farming magazines, on websites, from suppliers and salespeople and in the chatter of WhatsApp groups. They called it precision farming: data, drones, satellites, sensors, and software guiding the\u00a0machine.<\/p>\n

After a while, the tractor seemed to know the land better than the farmer\u200a\u2014\u200ameasuring soil, spacing seed, correcting itself on the move. It felt odd at first, but pretty soon data was in the driving\u00a0seat.<\/p>\n

When Deere launched the Operations Center, the rhythm of farm life began to change, slowly, then quickly. You\u2019d still hear engines starting at dawn, but not by personal preference. By now, the decision-making had shifted to screens and dashboards. It was about what the machines were noticing\u200a\u2014\u200aa damp patch here, a crooked line there, a reading that didn\u2019t look\u00a0right.<\/p>\n

By afternoon, someone hundreds of miles away might already be making the same small adjustment, following an invisible trail of shared data. No one designed that link; it just happened once the information began to\u00a0flow.<\/p>\n

When I spoke with Howard Yu<\/a> and Sangeet Paul Choudary<\/a> on The Innovation Show\u00a0, we talked about how technology doesn\u2019t just change what we build\u200a\u2014\u200ait changes how knowledge moves. Howard would call Deere\u2019s evolution a migration of capability\u200a\u2014\u200athe expertise shifting from human habit to digital pattern. Sangeet might see it as unbundling and rebundling\u200a\u2014\u200athe old industrial logic of production dissolving and reforming around coordination and\u00a0code.<\/p>\n

Whatever way we phrase it, diffusion has gone\u00a0digital.<\/p>\n

These days, John Deere doesn\u2019t sell tractors\u00a0anymore.<\/p>\n

It sells the conversation running through those machines\u200a\u2014\u200afarmers learning from each other in real time, part of the same network, diffusing the information instantly.<\/p>\n

The New Physics of Diffusion<\/h3>\n

From Bell to Shark to\u00a0I<\/p>\n

\u201cThe ability to learn faster than your competitors may be the only sustainable competitive advantage.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aArie de\u00a0Geus<\/em><\/p>\n

From Gutenberg to Deere is really a story of time collapsing. What once spread across generations now unfolds in minutes\u200a\u2014\u200asometimes seconds\u200a\u2014\u200aoften in real time. The clockspeed of diffusion has accelerated beyond recognition. Each leap in communication has narrowed the distance between knowing and\u00a0doing.<\/p>\n

The old S-curve of diffusion has straightened into an I-curve. There\u2019s no space between invention, imitation, and iteration\u200a\u2014\u200athey all happen at once. Today, we have to learn while doing. Seeking consensus, stopping to strategize and getting perfect information means falling\u00a0behind.<\/p>\n

For most of history, ideas travelled at the speed of talk. We had time to see a change coming, to debate, disagree and\u00a0adapt.<\/p>\n

Today, information moves faster than understanding. Everything from markets to memes rides the same\u00a0current.<\/p>\n

Reinvention, Transformation, Innovation cannot be one-off projects. Change itself is a mindset because the diffusion of innovation has become the diffusion of everything.<\/p>\n

In this week\u2019s episode of The Innovation Show, I\u2019m joined by Howard Yu and Sangeet Paul Choudary We discuss Adobe, Figma, Shein, John Deere and much\u00a0more.<\/p>\n

Watch or listen\u00a0here:<\/p>\n

https:\/\/medium.com\/media\/2efe03471216b5608823a7e06e6da637\/href<\/a><\/p>\n

The Collapse of the Curve: The New Physics of Diffusion from Field to Field<\/a> was originally published in The Thursday Thought<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>\n

The post The Collapse of the Curve: The New Physics of Diffusion from Field to Field<\/a> appeared first on The Innovation Show<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cMore effective communication occurs when two or more individuals are homophilous. When they share common meanings and a mutual subcultural language, and are alike in personal and social characteristics, the communication of new ideas is likely to have greater effects in terms of knowledge gain, attitude formation and change, and overt behavior change.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aEverett Rogers, The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1536,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Collapse of the Curve: The New Physics of Diffusion from Field to Field - Aidan McCullen \u2013 Keynote Speaker Ireland | Innovation & Leadership Expert<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aidanmccullen.com\/?p=1535\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Collapse of the Curve: The New Physics of Diffusion from Field to Field - Aidan McCullen \u2013 Keynote Speaker Ireland | Innovation & Leadership Expert\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cMore effective communication occurs when two or more individuals are homophilous. 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