{"id":1537,"date":"2025-10-30T15:11:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T15:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aidanmccullen.com\/?p=1537"},"modified":"2025-10-30T15:11:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T15:11:00","slug":"apres-moi-le-desert-believing-it-when-we-see-it-irelands-slow-emptying-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aidanmccullen.com\/?p=1537","title":{"rendered":"Apr\u00e8s Moi Le D\u00e9sert: Believing It When We See It: Ireland\u2019s Slow-Emptying Future"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cTo know and not to do is not yet to know.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aXunzi<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cThe safest road to Hell is the gradual one\u200a\u2014\u200athe gentle slope, soft underfoot, without sudden turnings, without milestones, without signposts.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aC.S.\u00a0Lewis<\/em><\/p>\n

TL;DR<\/h3>\n

We wait to believe until we see, but by the time we see, it\u2019s often too late. From Boston\u2019s burst pipe to S\u00e3o Paulo\u2019s drought to Ireland\u2019s single river dependency, the lesson is the same: unseen vulnerabilities compound quietly until they collapse loudly. Once, our fear was apr\u00e8s moi le d\u00e9luge\u200a\u2014\u200aafter me, the flood. Today, it\u2019s apr\u00e8s moi le d\u00e9sert\u200a\u2014\u200aafter me, the\u00a0desert.<\/p>\n

When the Tap Ran Dry in\u00a0Boston<\/h3>\n

Gray Rhino<\/p>\n

\u201cGray Rhinos are both highly probable and high impact. The sooner we deal with them, the lower the cost. Unfortunately, the farther away they are, the lower the likelihood that we step up before they become more costly and our options become limited.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aMichele Wucker, The Gray\u00a0Rhino<\/em><\/p>\n

In spring 2010, Boston\u2019s residents got an unscheduled lesson in fragility. A ten-foot-wide water main burst in Weston, Massachusetts\u200a\u2014\u200aa pipe carrying most of the city\u2019s drinking water from the Quabbin Reservoir. Overnight, nearly two million people were left without safe\u00a0water.<\/p>\n

While the rupture was sudden, the vulnerability was not. Years earlier, engineers had cautioned that Boston\u2019s water network was heavily centralised\u200a\u2014\u200aresilient in capacity, but fragile in dependency. When that single artery burst, the city discovered what \u201cone point of failure\u201d really\u00a0meant.<\/p>\n

For days, residents boiled water from backup sources and queued with jugs and kettles. Across the river, Cambridge carried on as usual; its water came from an independent system.<\/p>\n

Luckily, the event was contained within a week, but it exposed how we rarely notice the systems that sustain us until they\u00a0fail.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the anatomy of a what Michele Wucker calls a Gray Rhino: obvious in hindsight, unheeded in foresight. The danger wasn\u2019t that the pipe burst\u200a\u2014\u200ait was that we waited for it to burst before paying attention.<\/p>\n

The Stadium That Fills Too\u00a0Late<\/h3>\n

Exponential<\/p>\n

\u201cOn an exponential curve, reaching a mere 1% adoption from 0.01% puts you halfway to 100%!\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aRay\u00a0Kurzweil<\/em><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s run a quick Gedankenexperiment, a thought experiment in exponential growth.<\/p>\n

You\u2019re seated high in Wembley Stadium. On the pitch below, an official drops a single bead of water. After one minute, they drop two. Then four. Then eight. Each minute the drops\u00a0double.<\/p>\n

Now imagine the stadium is sealed\u200a\u2014\u200ano drains, no\u00a0leaks.<\/p>\n

How long would it take to submerge Wembley entirely?<\/p>\n

From the very first drop to the moment the stadium fills, it takes just 49\u00a0minutes!<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the unsettling part. By the 45th minute, the water has only reached the lowest seats. By the time the people closest to the pitch realise there\u2019s a problem, the remaining 90,000 spectators have four minutes left to\u00a0escape.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s exponential change\u200a\u2014\u200aimperceptible for forty-five minutes, irreversible in the final\u00a0four.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s a point here. Those same mathematics that fuel exponential growth can also describe exponential decay. The curve that once filled the stadium can just as easily empty it. The same dynamics that drive progress can quietly drain it\u00a0away.<\/p>\n

We always assume there\u2019s more time than there is, until there\u00a0isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The Drying of\u00a0Giants<\/h3>\n

Not a\u00a0Drop<\/p>\n

In 2014, both California and S\u00e3o Paulo faced a gray rhino. Reservoirs dropped to record lows. In S\u00e3o Paulo, engineers were forced to pump from what they called the \u201cdead volume\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200athe thick sludge at the bottom of the Cantareira system, never meant for\u00a0use.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the equivalent of drinking the crusty limescale at the bottom of a kettle, or running a car so low on fuel that the sediment clogs the engine. You can do it but it doesn\u2019t end\u00a0well.<\/p>\n

As Michele Wucker writes in The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, \u201cThe water crisis that Californians had long known was looming became impossible to ignore in 2014\u2026 S\u00e3o Paulo had tapped the second of its three reserves and still had enough water only for a matter of\u00a0weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a pattern she and I discussed when Michele joined us on The Innovation Show<\/a>: the biggest threats are rarely surprises\u200a\u2014\u200athey are slow-motion collisions we choose to\u00a0ignore.<\/p>\n

Nestl\u00e9\u2019s former chair, Peter Brabeck, once warned<\/a> that we are \u201crunning out of water today.\u201d He pointed out that while access to water for drinking and hygiene is a human right, that accounts for barely 1.5 percent of global use. The remaining 98.5 percent\u200a\u2014\u200aconsumed by industry, energy, and agriculture\u200a\u2014\u200ais treated as if it were infinite.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen something priceless has no price,\u201d Brabeck said, \u201chuman behaviour treats it as worthless.\u201d<\/p>\n

Brabeck argued that water scarcity lies at the nexus of three inseparable systems\u200a\u2014\u200afood, energy, and water. We burn water to make fuel, and we burn fuel to move water. Each dependency feeds the next until the curve bends towards collapse.<\/p>\n

He called it the most urgent arithmetic of our age: we have 120 years of proven oil reserves, but we are running out of water now. The maths is exponential, not linear. Depletion happens the way collapse always does\u200a\u2014\u200afirst slowly, then all at once. For years, the reservoir looks steady, until one season tips it past the point of\u00a0return.<\/p>\n

The problem isn\u2019t malice or stupidity. It\u2019s a mix of blindness, comfort, and assumption\u200a\u2014\u200athe quiet belief that because water has always flowed, it always will. Most people don\u2019t even see the rhino charging, so no one even knows we have to\u00a0move.<\/p>\n

And this isn\u2019t a criticism. Prevention rarely earns applause. Reward systems are designed for crisis response, not foresight. There are no headlines for the disasters that don\u2019t happen. No medals for what you\u00a0avert.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why John F. Kennedy wrote Profiles in Courage\u200a\u2014\u200ato honour those who act before the crowd understands why it matters. The courage to prevent is quieter than the courage to repair, but history depends on\u00a0both.<\/p>\n

And now, the same story unfolds in my homeland.<\/p>\n

Ireland\u2019s Slow-Emptying Future<\/h3>\n

Empty Liffey<\/p>\n

\u201cOur financial, political, and social structures often encourage risky behaviour and willful ignorance of threats. The biggest challenge is the set of incentives and psychological biases that favour short-term thinking over long-term strategy.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aMichele Wucker, The Gray\u00a0Rhino<\/em><\/p>\n

Eighty-five percent of the Greater Dublin Area\u2019s water comes from a single source\u200a\u2014\u200athe River Liffey\u200a\u2014\u200athrough two treatment plants. One prolonged drought, one contamination, and the taps could run dry within\u00a0days.<\/p>\n

Forecasts show the region will need 34% more water by 2044. The Water Supply Project\u200a\u2014\u200aEastern and Midlands Region will eventually bring treated water from the River Shannon\u2019s Parteen Basin to Dublin, feeding towns along the\u00a0way.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an ambitious plan\u200a\u2014\u200abut also an admission. We are not acting out of foresight, but out of necessity.<\/p>\n

As Andy Grove once said, \u201cSnow melts from the edges.\u201d The first signs of change\u200a\u2014\u200aor decay\u200a\u2014\u200aalways appear at the margins. By the time the centre feels the heat, the edges have already turned to dust. Dublin may not yet feel parched, but the early signals are already there: longer summers, heavier rainfall that runs off too fast, and reservoirs that take longer to refill each\u00a0year.<\/p>\n

And yet, what captures our headlines?<\/p>\n

Last December, The Guardian reported<\/a>: \u201cGuinness raids its Irish reserves to ease UK shortages amid Gen Z\u00a0demand.\u201d<\/p>\n

The story trended for days. Dublin\u2019s brewing tanks were running low, and that\u200a\u2014\u200anot the falling river levels\u200a\u2014\u200asparked\u00a0concern.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a neat parable of modern attention. The Guinness shortage was temporary; the water shortage won\u2019t\u00a0be.<\/p>\n

We react to the visible and the viral, not the structural and the slow. A headline about stout scarcity travels faster than a warning about an empty reservoir\u200a\u2014\u200auntil the pipes run dry and the story writes\u00a0itself.<\/p>\n

Once, our fear was apr\u00e8s moi le d\u00e9luge\u200a\u2014\u200aafter me, the flood. Now, as rivers thin and rainfall shifts, it\u2019s apr\u00e8s moi le\u00a0d\u00e9sert.<\/p>\n

The metaphor of the stadium still holds\u200a\u2014\u200aonly now it\u2019s emptying, not filling. Each minute, a little more drains away. Exponential decay follows the same curve as growth\u200a\u2014\u200aonly inverted. We notice only when the echo of abundance has gone\u00a0silent.<\/p>\n

When it comes to the Shannon, the Liffey, or any system we depend upon, the rhino is already charging. The question is whether we\u2019ll learn before it\u00a0hits.<\/p>\n

The Gentle\u00a0Slope<\/h3>\n

Shishi Odoshi<\/p>\n

\u201cThe safest road to Hell is the gradual one\u200a\u2014\u200athe gentle slope, soft underfoot, without sudden turnings, without milestones, without signposts.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aC.S.\u00a0Lewis<\/em><\/p>\n

In Japanese gardens, a shishi-odoshi<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200aa bamboo water fountain\u200a\u2014\u200afills slowly, then tips suddenly, striking a rock with a hollow clack. Its purpose is not just aesthetic. It\u2019s designed to scare away the animals that graze too close\u200a\u2014\u200aa rhythm of calm punctuated by regular warnings.<\/p>\n

Organisations, too, can live by such rhythms. The sound of change rarely remains silent; we simply stop listening or choose not to\u00a0hear.<\/p>\n

Knowledge without action is a kind of slow\u00a0suicide.<\/p>\n

Because by the time we believe it, it\u2019s already too\u00a0late.<\/p>\n

The latest episode of The Innovation Show with Samuel Arbesman on his trilogy of books. It was my reading of his book and our resulting conversation that inspired me to write this Thursday Thought on unseen errors, exponential decay, and the dangers of waiting until the water is at our knees before we start to\u00a0move.<\/p>\n

In Overcomplicated, he argues that our systems\u200a\u2014\u200afrom aircraft software to financial markets\u200a\u2014\u200ahave grown so entangled that even their creators can no longer fully comprehend them. The behaviour of our technologies now mirrors the behaviour of nature: unpredictable, emergent, and often humbling.<\/p>\n

We talk about why the same forces that make technology powerful also make it fragile, why our old mental models for managing complexity no longer work, and why the future demands not perfect understanding, but humble navigation.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/medium.com\/media\/47a9709fe29c099887b353ca9889bd9b\/href<\/a>https:\/\/medium.com\/media\/e23a1e3e0be82ad189cfc22586023926\/href<\/a><\/p>\n

Apr\u00e8s Moi Le D\u00e9sert: Believing It When We See It: Ireland\u2019s Slow-Emptying Future<\/a> was originally published in The Thursday Thought<\/a> on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.<\/p>\n

The post Apr\u00e8s Moi Le D\u00e9sert: Believing It When We See It: Ireland\u2019s Slow-Emptying Future<\/a> appeared first on The Innovation Show<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cTo know and not to do is not yet to know.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aXunzi \u201cThe safest road to Hell is the gradual one\u200a\u2014\u200athe gentle slope, soft underfoot, without sudden turnings, without milestones, without signposts.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aC.S.\u00a0Lewis TL;DR We wait to believe until we see, but by the time we see, it\u2019s often too late. From Boston\u2019s burst pipe to S\u00e3o […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":1538,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nApr\u00e8s Moi Le D\u00e9sert: Believing It When We See It: Ireland\u2019s Slow-Emptying Future - Aidan McCullen \u2013 Keynote Speaker Ireland | Innovation & Leadership Expert<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aidanmccullen.com\/?p=1537\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Apr\u00e8s Moi Le D\u00e9sert: Believing It When We See It: Ireland\u2019s Slow-Emptying Future - Aidan McCullen \u2013 Keynote Speaker Ireland | Innovation & Leadership Expert\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cTo know and not to do is not yet to know.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aXunzi \u201cThe safest road to Hell is the gradual one\u200a\u2014\u200athe gentle slope, soft underfoot, without sudden turnings, without milestones, without signposts.\u201d\u200a\u2014\u200aC.S.\u00a0Lewis TL;DR We wait to believe until we see, but by the time we see, it\u2019s often too late. 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