Imagine having two rabbits in a meadow, each pair having two babies. So, you start with two rabbits, then 4, then 8, and so on — it keeps doubling exponentially. This is like a population explosion.
However, at some point, there are so many rabbits that there isn’t enough food for all of them. This makes it harder for the rabbits to survive. Some might die because there’s not enough food, or they might get sick, or they might die in the fight for scarce resources.
Nature has ways to control the population when it gets too crowded, like making some rabbits die or get sick. Only the strongest and fittest rabbits can survive when resources are limited.
From An S-Shaped Adventure with
As Theodore Modis elucidates in his work, the S-curve visually represents population growth in both nature and business, embodying the principle of survival of the fittest. In nature, this curve starts with slow growth, accelerates exponentially, and eventually slows down as the environment reaches its capacity. The same pattern unfolds in business pastures, where only the most adaptable, innovative, and dominant survive.
(For more on S-Curves, check out the finale of our series with Theodore Modis below.)
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From Meadow to Marketplace — PillPack’s Journey:
To illustrate this concept, let’s delve into the S-curve’s application to PillPack, a pharmacy startup that disrupted the industry with its innovative approach to prescription management.
(PillPack is discussed in a forthcoming episode of The Innovation Show with Kaihan Krippendorff).
Pent-Up Demand
Pent-up Demand on The S-Curve
The First Two Rabbits — PillPack’s Inception
PillPack’s founders, TJ Parker and Elliot Cohen, envisioned a solution to the complexities of prescription management while observing patients struggle with multiple medications. Their journey began in 2013 when they won MIT’s Hacking Medicine Hackathon, launching PillPack from the Techstars accelerator.
The Slow Slog/Start
“The beginning seems to be more than half of the whole.” — Aristotle, ‘The Nicomachean Ethics’
PillPack’s growth initially appeared slow. Over a year was dedicated to obtaining licenses and establishing relationships with pharmacy benefit managers. Advertising proved challenging due to misclassification on online platforms.
Pent-Up Demand — Accelerating Growth
“Accelerated growth is a catching-up effect, usually attributed to pent-up demand.” — Theodore Modis.
Despite early challenges, frustrated customers welcomed PillPack’s offering. By 2015, pent-up customer demand and PillPack’s presence in 47 states led to $15M in revenue.
PillPack streamlined the pharmacy process by collecting customer prescriptions and insurance details via its online platform. Within PillPack’s distribution centre, a combination of an AI dispensing system and licensed pharmacists collaboratively organises medications. The AI categorises pills based on characteristics like size, colour, and shape, promptly notifying pharmacists of any concerns. Medications are then shipped in a user-friendly dispenser featuring dates and dosage information. Patients have continuous access to PillPack’s 24/7 customer service for any inquiries.
Market Saturation and a New Curve Jump
As PillPack approached market saturation, challenges emerged. Competitors recognised the threat, and despite the success, PillPack faced low-profit margins and escalating expansion costs. In a strategic move in 2018, PillPack embraced a new S-curve, agreeing to be acquired by Amazon for $753M.
This curve jump means the company enjoys the advantage of Amazon fulfilment centres, Prime subscriptions, and Amazon’s delivery network. Amazon recently announced the Prime health program, which offers affordable generic medications monthly… available by drone in under 60 minutes.
PillPack’s journey exemplifies the phases of the S-curve in business, from a slow start to accelerated growth and, ultimately, a strategic jump to a new curve. This evolution, analogous to nature’s cycles, highlights the importance of adaptability and innovation in navigating the intricate dance of growth and competition.
Happy Thanksgiving
PillPack: Snowballing Like Rabbits, A Pent-Up Prescription for Success was originally published in The Thursday Thought on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
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